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When will the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic end?

Food Safety and the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | FDA

That’s an open ended question isn’t it? That’s what everyone wants to know. When will it end?

To even begin to ask this question, it’s important to review past Pandemics.

By far, the worst Pandemic in America was the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1912. Business’ were staggered openings to stop the spread of the virus, people wore masks, citizens were asked to stay at home, many familiar actions to what we are seeing now.

Between 1918 and 1919 the Spanish flu had killed 675,000 Americans, still the greatest pandemic deaths in history.

Two additional pandemics occured one from 1957-1958 in which 70k American’s were killed and then again a decade later in 1968-1969 where an additional 34k American’s lost lives.

Most recently the H1N1 or “swine flu” pandemic lasted from 2009-2010 and killed a total of 12k American’s nationwide.

See source information and additional information at:

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic

So based on history, it’s going to be a pandemic for a while. Might as well buckle up and hold on tight.

That is why it is so impotant to “flatten the curve”. Flatten the curve refers to the number of cases we have at ONE TIME. Cases require medical professionals, equipment, supplies. The less people we have at ONE TIME, the more attention we can give patients who stagger in later. Would you rather need a respirator when 60,000 other people need one, or would you rather need one when only say, 10 other people need one?

When you are looking at the Covid-19 cases, it is important to look at the number of RELEASED CASES. These are people who have had the virus and have been released back into the community. While no solid proof exists that you gain immunity of any amount after having the virus, scientific evidence shows our bodies try really hard to protect themselves.

The more RELEASED cases we see, the higher chance of societal immunity. This will eventiually lead us to herd immunity. Herd immunity refers to when the majority of the population has become immune to the virus, either by vaccination, or inability to reinfect subsequent times.

For more on herd immunity visit:

https://apic.org/monthly_alerts/herd-immunity/

So back to the original question, the one on everyone’s mind? When will things return to normal? When will this end?

The answer lies in many factors. Your ability to isolate as much as possible to SLOW the spread of the virus, whether or not we achieve minimal immunity to the virus, and the ability of scientists to find a vaccine or treatment.

There is no answer to the question yet, and evidence shows it might be a while, but in the anticipation of rushing to get back to it, consider first which parts are worth rushing back to.

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